信报财经新闻 2011-10-01 By 曹仁超
黄金牛市未完跌市是大调整
QE1 规模是联储局买入3000 亿美元国库券、12.5 亿万美元住宅楼按证券、1000 亿美元房利美及房贷美债券，引发2009 年3 月美股上升，2010 年8 月暗示推出QE2，并在2010 年11 月至2011 年5 月买入6000 亿美元国库券。即前后注入一万多亿美元资金，至于OT2 是买入4000 亿美元6 年或以上债券压低长期利息，卖出4000 亿美元3 年或以下短期债券，上述决定引发今年9 月美股及金价大跌。估计30 年期美债利率由3.6 厘降至2.6 厘（即2008 年雷曼事件时水平。）自2006 年12 月至今美国银行国内存款由11000 亿美元上升到81000亿美元，平均利率只有0.79 厘，日后联储局抽走4000 亿美元短债后估计可令平均利率上升至1 厘。2006年第一季政府新增负债占GDP3％到今年第一季上升到9.6％，私人负债由占GDP16％下降到0.5％。
即过去五年政府负债取代私人负债情况和1994 年起日本相似，今天日本政府负债相等于日本GDP120％，美国政府负债是美国GDP60％。
另一分别是日本经济是出口型、美国是内需型。
奢侈品股进入调整期
自1960 年至今标普500 平均P/E19.4 倍，今年9 月（用过去方法计算纯利）标普500 平均P/E19 倍，即到了唔算贵亦不算便宜水平。（如用新计算法P╱E更降至10.4 倍）。
黄金已低至1532 美元重返上升轨支持区。过去半年一直叫大家小沾手黄金，到了现水平又可小量吸纳黄金，由于仍是负利率、即黄金牛市未完，近日跌市只是一次大调整。
金价在9 月6 日1920 美元遇上阻力，理由是商品价格指数今年5 月开始转弱，「铜」博士告诉我们，全球制造业在转弱中。但客观形势仍是负利率（利息低于CPI升幅）因此未能肯定金价已见顶，但调整幅度已惊人， 估计金价在1600 美元重建基础。
奢侈品股进入调整期、品牌股亦面对大幅回落，资源股由2000 年起步上升今年亦到了见顶日子，下一铺玩什么？10 年人事几番新，20 年内事物总改变一次。
2011 年不是2008 年，OT2 对大银行有利但短期股价仍受压，OT2 对黄金及白银不利并已在市场上已反映。自1997 年起你的投资策略必须随形势改变而改变，不能一成不变。例如今年7 月10 日恒生指数的死亡交叉点出现后，投资股票宜保守。
历史告诉我们；不能依赖政府创造职位去带来繁荣，日本不能、欧洲不能、美国也不能。经济繁荣来自企业精神同人类的创见。911事件代表强如美国的防卫力量亦可从内部攻破（第二次世界大战日本大和军舰亦只能偷袭珍珠港而非美国心脏。）今年美国政府债券失去3A 级地位，需时多久才能重建全球投资者对美国金融业的信心？
1929 年是美国机械时代高峰期，需时20 年到1949 年二次大战后才出现另一繁荣期。2000 年是美国电脑技术高潮，这次又需时多久才进入另一繁荣期？在另一繁荣期来临前股市仍大上大落，2010 年美国GDP 上升3％，企业纯利大升但人均收入49445 美元和1997 年差不多（ 较2007 年下降6.4％。）
美国穷人增加太快
2010 年有4620 万人生活在贫穷线之下（即年入11139 美元或以下。
）占总人口15.1％或六个成年人中一个，是17 年内新高。根据CNNMoney 计算！扣除通胀后中产收入较1980 年上升11％、富有家庭收入上升42％、穷人收入基本上不变，即过去30 年中产受惠有限，新增财富大部分落入5％富人手中。
根据哈佛大学教授Lawrence Katz 分析：美国中产自1997 年起收入不升反降及前景并不乐观！根据Ecomon ic Policy Institute 数字：今年7 月失业人口1110 万，8 月份急升到1400 万上升速度惊人，未来4 年如美国经济陷入衰退失业人口可增加1000 万即失业率达15 ％惊人水平。今天的问题已经不是美国有多少穷人而是穷人数目增长速度太快。
恒指P/E进入偏低区
1998 年受长期资金服务公司出事标普500 由1200 点回落，最低连900 点亦失守，1998 年底开始回升并在2000 年初升穿1500点。在科网股泡沫爆破后标普500急跌并在2001 年8 月6 日跌穿1200 点，加上911 事件影响标普500 最低跌穿800 点才回升并在2007 年见1576 点。CDO 危机出现加上2008 年9 月雷曼事件影响，标普500 不但跌穿1200 点并在2009 年初跌穿700 点才反弹。这次上升到2011 年5 月1370 点又回落并在9 月份1200 点又再失守，面对2012 年美国大企业纯利下滑，这次标普500 在那一水平才获支持？
今天恒生指数P╱E 已进入偏低区（8 倍到12 倍），个人相信恒指17800 点以下、16200 点以上进入可以吸纳区，但未来上升空间有限。以银行股为例面对内地及本港楼价进入调整期这方面贷款增长率极之有限，银行息差收入仍在减少，加上出售基金服务、代客买卖股票、外汇等收入亦不可能大幅增长，因此P╱E 虽然低，但G（增长率）亦很低不见得特别吸引。
内房股亦面对相同问题，至于内地汽车股担心今年上半年已出现拐点，高增长率渐成过去，家电方面家电下乡旧换新政策即将到期，令家电销售增速无法维持，市场给予低P╱E有其合理之处。
煤炭板块上半年表现仍好，不过下半年中国GDP增长率在减速，加上欧美经济动荡，煤炭需求80％来自火电、钢铁、水泥及化工四大行业，在十二．五规划下煤炭前景亦可能进入低增长期。换言之今天恒指低P╱E正正反映未来上市企业纯利进入低增长期。
恒生指数牛市二期下调幅度应不止31.8％甚至50％，可能是61.8％即是16144 点。A 股牛市一期由2008 年11 月开始、2009 年8 月结束进入漫长的牛市二期，理由是中国经济转型需很长时间才完成。
1980 年香港经济转型牛市第一期，由1982 年12 月2 日恒指676 点起步、198 3 年7 月21 日1102 点结束，牛皮了三年到1986 年4 月联交所成立，大量外资涌入才令恒生指数大幅上升，并在1987 年9 月完成牛市三期。
香港那次经济转型牛市二期需三年才完成，中国应更长。牛市二期特性是有不少股份可以跌到唔清唔楚，因为在牛市一期上升是没有业绩支持，亦有不少股份可以升到唔清唔楚，理由是在熊市时被过分抛售，但他们业绩继续保持增长。那些是杂草、那些是禾？如是杂草应及早清除掉，如是禾便应留下以便他日结谷。
中国迈向中等收入区
十二．五规划下未来五年中国消费市场将扩大一倍、未来工资亦大幅上升，即未来五年中国通胀率（CPI）不会低估计维持在5％左右。过去五年（2005 年至201 0 年）中国消费由占GDP45％下降至34％因为出口增长太劲， 未来五年中国消费占GDP 希望超过50％。今年地方政府负债估计达到107000 亿人民币，过去地方政府收入80％来自卖地，中央政府希望内地楼价在未来一段日子下调10％到15％。面对未来楼价下调地方政府在财政上面对很大压力，因此中国经济真的「好」起来仍需一段日子。经济转型有如脱胎换骨，初期十分辛苦完成转型后才可享受由内需型所带来另一次GDP 高增长期。
(再论经济转型：外资既开始深深忧虑中国的增长前景，而结构调整经济转型又是中央既定之策，Michael Pettis 的rule of thumb 是，中央把内地家庭消费占GDP 比重从目前35％提高至50％水平，定为未来十年的努力方向。这跟中国经济结构「再平衡」（rebala ncing）目标一致，惟达标的大前提是消费扩张步伐必须比GDP 增长速度快，否则消费占GDP 比重便没有上升的可能。按照Pettis 的演算，内地家庭消费占GDP 比重十年后要增至50％水平，消费本身每年必须比GDP 增长快4 个百分点。问题来了，中国过去十年消费增长虽相当不错，但平均亦不过7％至8％，落后于10％至11％的GDP 增长， 这亦是内地消费占GDP 比重长期停留于四成以下的底因。要扭转这个局面，要么消费再加4个点，要么GDP减4个点。)
1993 年中国政府决定改革国企，到2001 年短短几年国企数字减少三分二，由120 万间降至46.8 万间，员工占城市就业人口比重由59％降至32％。其后将大型国企上市接受公众投资者监管，政府成为这些企业的弓大股东。以上述模式经营上市企业例如建行（939） 、中移动（941）等，不但如此更引入外资企业做第二大股东，引入外国经营方式。这些公私合营的企业是否能战胜外国上市的私人大企业？将决定未来中国经济前途。
中国渐进入「中等收入区」（人均收入2500 美元到5000 美元），能否透过经济转型进入高收入区（人均收入15000 美元到30000 美元）。环顾世界上不少国家经济一旦进入中等收入区GDP 增长率便下降即中等收入陷阱。根据世界银行数字：菲律宾自1960 年起至今过去50 年GDP 并没有停止增长，例如2010 年GDP 仍上升7.1％。为何菲律宾人普遍仍如此穷？在一个菲律宾选美会上某女士问她的丈夫：到底那些评判是否公正？菲律宾政府的贪污，令法律不能公正地执行，令财富集中在小数人手中，那些人赚到钱后因为对政府不信任将它调到海外……。菲律宾情况值得目前中国政府好好思考。
中国未来会否一如过去60 年的菲律宾成为「资金」出口国？改革开放初期因集中在经济层面上比较上容易，例如拉丁美洲国家、东南亚国家等都能完成黄金30 年达到中等收入水平（人均收入3,000美元到6,000 美元。）能否进入富裕社会（人均收入15000 美元到30000 美元）有赖建立一个廉洁及有效率政府，江山易改、本性难移。中国亦有「周处除三害」的故事。山中老虎给周处打死了、海中蛟龙亦被周处杀掉，最后周处改过自身不再欺压老百姓……。
从2011 年到2020 年的世界将是怎样？1980 年伊朗皇朝倒下伊朗由亲美变成反美，美国支持伊拉克发动两伊战争，一打便十年。到1990 年伊拉克不听美国的话入侵科威科，美国出兵攻打伊拉克！
1990 年前美国支持阿富汗对付苏联，2001 年美国出兵将阿富汗政权推翻。十年人事几翻新，天下事皆因共同利益而走在一起，亦因利意见分歧而闹翻。
本人曾见过狂升股市4 次，亦见过狂泻股市5 次，见过接近20％一年的通胀率及黄金疯狂上升，亦见过20 年黄金变烂铜。今天唯一相信的是「止蚀唔止赚」。
不少人以为长期持有实赚，如你在1972年投资Avon 持有到今年仍蚀54％、宝丽来即影即有相机蚀52％、兰克斯诺影印机蚀44％、IBM 蚀36％、柯达拍纸蚀24％。
以经济周期思考问题
换言之拣股好重要如买错股份只有止蚀，唔好同佢谈恋爱。烂滚老公、唔生性仔系好难改好的。请不要痴痴地等。例如1980 年买入佳宁集团，佢可以破产。如果你学晓拣股，每年赚两分钱好易，我不是指2009 年呢D 大升市， 甚至2010 年买电盈（008）股价亦由2元升上3.5 元、中电（002）由55元升到日前73 元、港灯（006）今天叫电能实业由44 元升到64 元。2011 年的赌场股……。
大部分投资者或投资策略决策者很少由经济周期角度去思考问题，一般都采用「直线投射法」（例如过去两年企业纯利每年上升25％，便展望今年、明年纯利每年仍升25％。）利用经济周期去分析后市必须有一连串「假设」及「推理」，一旦同现实有出入便必需速速作出纠正，上述非一般人可以做到。
1997 年后的香港经济不断出现盛衰周期，令大部分投资者无所适从，公司领导层受过去经验所局限，很易陷入「决策上的陷阱」，无法适应如此短的盛衰周期。大量衍生工具的出现加上利率低企， 代表「Less skin in thegame」。
结果一有风吹草动投资者便纷纷加入抢购或抛售行列。2001 年Enron 不合规格的会计引致破产，带来2002 年股市危机，2008 年9月雷曼事件又引发金融海啸，近年的高频交易令2009 年5月及今年8月的股市出现迅速溶解。
读过garden-vareity 理论便知道商业循环周期不离5 年一小变、10 年一大变，此乃自第二次世界大战后的正常商业周期。日本在1990 年出现「资产负债表衰退」，睇过RichardKoo 的文章有助了解「资产负债表」衰退。只有重整资产负债表另一繁荣期才可以再来而不是由政府进一步增加负债，以债养债迟早大镬，个人如此、公司如此、国家如此一样。
美国推出量化宽松政策可以阻止1930 年代式经济萧条出现（即没有双底衰退。）但逃不出日式衰退，何况世界经济已进入再平衡期（日本GDP 由1990 年占全球比重12％降至目前6％。未来20 年欧、美GDP 将由2007 年各占全球GDP25％降至只占12％，新兴工业国所占比重倍增、上述改变不是美国联储局推出什么TO2 可以改变。）
了解大趋势创造财富
过去几个决定影响你今天拥有多少财富。一、1982 年8 月中国政府宣布收回1997 年7 月香港主权及1989 年六四事件，你是否对香港前途仍然抱有信心？二、1997 年7 月1日特区政府成立推出八万五房屋政策，你对投资房地产态度？三、200 1年中国加入WTO 你有没有投资资源股或黄金？四、2007 年9 月在「港股直通车」谣言下，你有没有出售当时已偏高的港股？五、2008 年10 月中国政府推出四万亿人民币刺激经济计划，你有没有重新入市吸纳股份？
今天你仍未发达四大原因：一、你买的住宅单位超过你负担能力，结果一阔三大。（尤其是在1997 年那年买楼。）二、你不了解什么是「价值」。
有没有买物非所值的「名牌」消费品。在投资方面有没有在接近最高价时才买入、在接近最低价才卖出，因为恐慌。
三、买入你不需要的东西。例如女性买皮草、首饰、手袋，男性追求车款，结果垃圾满屋，通通都是浪费金钱行为。
四、对「学习」没有兴趣。太多人离校之后对吸收知识兴趣大减，浪费时间在无聊的事物上，包括行街、睇戏、打机、吹水、研究马经、赌波、睇八卦周刊。上述没有一项有助你致富，时间便是如此无无谓谓地浪费掉，最后一事无成。
换言之花时间或金钱在无谓的事物上，都是你今天仍未发达的原因。
知识就是财富因为知识能提升你的洞察力、领悟力。
例如分析过1970 年到1980 年的金价狂升后，自然了解到由2000 年起的金价再次进入十年上升期。
1984 年到1997 年本港楼价因政府决定每年只卖地五十公顷政策而大幅上升，2003 年9 月特区政府取消公开卖地，改为采纳钩地表。1950年到1980 年香港制造业的发展史，有助分析1978 年到2007 年中国制造业的黄金30 年。1990 年起来自日本经验，亦有助了解2000 年起的美国未来。
知识没法协助你预测明天股市怎样，但有助你了解大趋势将如何，来自1975 年新力公司推出Walkman 产品的盛衰周期经验，亦有助了解新科技产品的盛衰周期，及明白没有任何事物是永恒的。
曹仁超
2011年10月1日星期六
Rural students find college out of reach
South China Morning Post Sep 13, 2011 by Raymond Li
Few aim high, posing a sharp contrast between countryside families trying to put children through school and urbanites armed with better resources
From a rural boy born and bred in an impoverished town in Chongqing to a postgraduate medical student at the prestigious Peking University, Luo Dasheng best exemplifies how lives can be transformed through hard work at school.
Luo, 24, is in his second year of a three-year master's programme in public health administration.
"I was pretty much single-minded in trying to get there, through all my years in secondary school, and I was lucky that it paid off," he said.
Luo's success story ought to be inspiring to other underprivileged children. Unfortunately, such achievements are far less common nowadays, research shows.
Concerns about reduced upward mobility have generated much public discussion in recent weeks, as the trend is widely seen as a broader indication of the further marginalisation of rural residents at the hands of urban elites - those with power, money and greater access to resources.
A sense of deprivation among the rural masses has led to a ubiquitously pessimistic view of schooling.
A 2009 study led by Liu Yunshan , an associate professor at Peking University, found that the proportion of rural students enrolled as undergraduates at the university dropped from roughly 30 per cent between 1978 and 1998 to somewhere between 10 and 15 per cent between 2000 and 2005.
A separate study, led last year by renowned mainland educator Professor Yang Dongping , found a disproportionately higher concentration of students with rural origins at second- and third-tier colleges.
For instance, Yang's research found that the percentage of rural students enrolling for three-year degrees in Hubei province between 2002 and 2007 rose from 39 per cent in 2002 to 62 per cent in 2007.
He said concerns over the lack of access to quality education were not without merit, particularly as rural students accounted for more than 60 per cent of those sitting the national college-entrance examinations.
"At prestigious universities, the offspring of those with greater access to social, cultural and financial resources account for a major proportion in enrolment, to the detriment of those from rural and underprivileged families whose [enrolment] numbers are on a decline," he added.
Luo, the medical student, said he was admitted to Peking University in 2005 with the fourth-highest score in his district in the college-entrance exam. To pay for his five years of undergraduate studies, Luo said, he took out 30,000 yuan (HK$36,400) in student loans and was also entitled to some financial aid for students from poor families. He also made extra money as a tutor.
But he still had to ask his parents for a further 5,000 yuan a year, or more than half of their annual income. "You have to be exceptionally good and worth the money, or you have to think about quitting school early if your chances are slim."
He said that much to their parents' dismay, many of his friends quit school after junior high and took on jobs such as barbers, because they did not think their prospects of entering a good college were good .
Statistics from the 2011 Blue Book of Education indicate that about one million high school graduates out of 9.46 million did not sit the college-entrance exams last year, a finding that the book's analysts say is indicative of rural students snubbing college.
Some new enrolment rules in recent years, meant to cultivate creativity, have put rural students at a disadvantage. For example, students are entitled to have up to 20 points added to their entrance exam scores if they do extra-curricular activities, but few rural students can afford to take part in such activities.
Zhan You , a 24-year-old computer science major who graduated this summer from another top-tier college, the Beijing Institute of Technology, said he did not get to lay his hands on a computer until his second year at university, when he assembled one from parts he bought for about 3,000 yuan.
"I didn't even know how to turn a computer on or off at the beginning of college, and I was so devastated that I even questioned whether I had chosen the wrong field of study."
Zhan, a native of the impoverished Shangcai county in Henan's Zhumadian , said his father let his little brother drop out after primary school because they could not support two students.
He said only two out of 10 students in his junior high school chose to attend college, because they felt a spot at a top university was out of their reach, and that a second- or third-tier college would lead to a less-promising career. Besides, the cost of tuition was too much for them to afford.
Zhan said he could not have gone on to his senior high school studies if not for a 1,000 yuan annual grant that he received from the Hong Kong-based Chi Heng Foundation. Now that he has a job, with a salary of 4,000 yuan a month, he needs to start repaying 24,000 yuan in student loans.
Meanwhile, his brother, 21, is toiling away at a shoe factory in his hometown for about 800 yuan a month and can barely make ends meet.
Cai Wenjun, 17, who studies car maintenance at a Beijing vocational school, said it was absurd to suggest that rural students simply did not care as much about schooling as their urban peers did.
Cai came from a poor village in Gushi county, Henan, but has been living with her parents in Beijing for six years. She said she did very well in junior high school but decided not to return to her hometown for senior high school, as required under the urban and rural household registration system, which meant she had to give up on her college aspirations.
Instead, she enrolled in the vocational school to stay with her parents in Beijing. "As a rural student, you're bound to deal with so many hard decisions, financial constraints and other uncertainties, from early on, over whether you should join your parents in the cities or stay behind for consistent schooling for college," she said. "Some are simply fed up with all that and stop trying."
http://topics.scmp.com/news/china-news-watch/article/Rural-students-find-college-out-of-reach
raymond.li@scmp.com Copyright (c) 2011. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| Zhang Mengbi, 28, harvests vegetables in Nanqiao village in Xifeng county, Guizhou. The Guiyang medical college graduate returned to serve her village two years ago and was elected village chief last year. Photo: Xinhua |
Few aim high, posing a sharp contrast between countryside families trying to put children through school and urbanites armed with better resources
From a rural boy born and bred in an impoverished town in Chongqing to a postgraduate medical student at the prestigious Peking University, Luo Dasheng best exemplifies how lives can be transformed through hard work at school.
Luo, 24, is in his second year of a three-year master's programme in public health administration.
"I was pretty much single-minded in trying to get there, through all my years in secondary school, and I was lucky that it paid off," he said.
Luo's success story ought to be inspiring to other underprivileged children. Unfortunately, such achievements are far less common nowadays, research shows.
Concerns about reduced upward mobility have generated much public discussion in recent weeks, as the trend is widely seen as a broader indication of the further marginalisation of rural residents at the hands of urban elites - those with power, money and greater access to resources.
A sense of deprivation among the rural masses has led to a ubiquitously pessimistic view of schooling.
A 2009 study led by Liu Yunshan , an associate professor at Peking University, found that the proportion of rural students enrolled as undergraduates at the university dropped from roughly 30 per cent between 1978 and 1998 to somewhere between 10 and 15 per cent between 2000 and 2005.
A separate study, led last year by renowned mainland educator Professor Yang Dongping , found a disproportionately higher concentration of students with rural origins at second- and third-tier colleges.
For instance, Yang's research found that the percentage of rural students enrolling for three-year degrees in Hubei province between 2002 and 2007 rose from 39 per cent in 2002 to 62 per cent in 2007.
He said concerns over the lack of access to quality education were not without merit, particularly as rural students accounted for more than 60 per cent of those sitting the national college-entrance examinations.
"At prestigious universities, the offspring of those with greater access to social, cultural and financial resources account for a major proportion in enrolment, to the detriment of those from rural and underprivileged families whose [enrolment] numbers are on a decline," he added.
Luo, the medical student, said he was admitted to Peking University in 2005 with the fourth-highest score in his district in the college-entrance exam. To pay for his five years of undergraduate studies, Luo said, he took out 30,000 yuan (HK$36,400) in student loans and was also entitled to some financial aid for students from poor families. He also made extra money as a tutor.
But he still had to ask his parents for a further 5,000 yuan a year, or more than half of their annual income. "You have to be exceptionally good and worth the money, or you have to think about quitting school early if your chances are slim."
He said that much to their parents' dismay, many of his friends quit school after junior high and took on jobs such as barbers, because they did not think their prospects of entering a good college were good .
Statistics from the 2011 Blue Book of Education indicate that about one million high school graduates out of 9.46 million did not sit the college-entrance exams last year, a finding that the book's analysts say is indicative of rural students snubbing college.
Some new enrolment rules in recent years, meant to cultivate creativity, have put rural students at a disadvantage. For example, students are entitled to have up to 20 points added to their entrance exam scores if they do extra-curricular activities, but few rural students can afford to take part in such activities.
Zhan You , a 24-year-old computer science major who graduated this summer from another top-tier college, the Beijing Institute of Technology, said he did not get to lay his hands on a computer until his second year at university, when he assembled one from parts he bought for about 3,000 yuan.
"I didn't even know how to turn a computer on or off at the beginning of college, and I was so devastated that I even questioned whether I had chosen the wrong field of study."
Zhan, a native of the impoverished Shangcai county in Henan's Zhumadian , said his father let his little brother drop out after primary school because they could not support two students.
He said only two out of 10 students in his junior high school chose to attend college, because they felt a spot at a top university was out of their reach, and that a second- or third-tier college would lead to a less-promising career. Besides, the cost of tuition was too much for them to afford.
Zhan said he could not have gone on to his senior high school studies if not for a 1,000 yuan annual grant that he received from the Hong Kong-based Chi Heng Foundation. Now that he has a job, with a salary of 4,000 yuan a month, he needs to start repaying 24,000 yuan in student loans.
Meanwhile, his brother, 21, is toiling away at a shoe factory in his hometown for about 800 yuan a month and can barely make ends meet.
Cai Wenjun, 17, who studies car maintenance at a Beijing vocational school, said it was absurd to suggest that rural students simply did not care as much about schooling as their urban peers did.
Cai came from a poor village in Gushi county, Henan, but has been living with her parents in Beijing for six years. She said she did very well in junior high school but decided not to return to her hometown for senior high school, as required under the urban and rural household registration system, which meant she had to give up on her college aspirations.
Instead, she enrolled in the vocational school to stay with her parents in Beijing. "As a rural student, you're bound to deal with so many hard decisions, financial constraints and other uncertainties, from early on, over whether you should join your parents in the cities or stay behind for consistent schooling for college," she said. "Some are simply fed up with all that and stop trying."
http://topics.scmp.com/news/china-news-watch/article/Rural-students-find-college-out-of-reach
raymond.li@scmp.com Copyright (c) 2011. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
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